1High ceiling, low floor
Trey Lance showed well on paper in limited opportunities last season. He remains raw but owns high upside. Still, there’s no guarantee he’ll start this season, which keeps his floor pretty low.
2If Lance wins the starting job, he probably won’t lose it
Back to his upside: anyone with his arm and mobility — and high-end receiving corps — could shine. Again, we saw it briefly last year. If Lance somehow gets the opportunity, he probably won’t lose it. This keeps his ceiling higher than perhaps any unlikely Week 1 starter.
3How good is Jimmy Garoppolo?
How good is Jimmy Garoppolo? His inability to lock down the starting gig coming into this offseason is a reminder that San Francisco isn’t sold. And if Garoppolo hasn’t sold them yet — after two deep playoff runs — then it’s quite possible he never will. That’s why Lance is tantalizingly close to fantasy relevancy.
4A reduction in carries for Deebo Samuel could help catapult Lance
Assuming Deebo Samuel gets less work on the ground (an incredible 59 carries and eight rushing scores last year), that should create more fantasy production opportunities for Lance — again, if he starts.
5X-factor: George Kittle
If George Kittle had stayed healthy these past three seasons (and not missed 13 games), he’d be pursuing his fifth straight 1,000-yard season (and possibly his fifth straight 1,100-yard season). That’s rarified air, and that’s the value Kittle gives to QBs. He’d be a monster X-factor for Lance, given his realistic 90/1,100/8 potential.