Each preseason, a player’s likely range of outcomes falls between his realistic optimal production and realistic minimal production. “Chaos” players are the commonly draftable players whose values are the most difficult to predict. The gap between their realistic optimal production and realistic minimal production is huge.
Some chaos players are highly injury-prone. Others might be backups with a great chance of eventually starting. Their outcomes are objectively unpredictable. Yet, we can still assess whether their market value makes them a higher-probability bargain or a higher-probability bust.
A player’s market value often is quantified as his overall or positional ADP. Based on PFN’s assessments of each player’s likely range of outcomes, we identify which players are vastly undervalued or overvalued, as well as determine their most likely outcome range. For many years, we’ve shared these predictions with readers, challenging managers to think differently about players whose values might seem obvious but which likely are not accurate.
Fantasy rankings generally are two-dimensional solutions to three-dimensional challenges. Each list tells managers which player to draft next – but not why and without context. Are you drafting for high ceiling or for high floor? Would you prefer to take the final No. 1 WR on the board, simply because he’s his team’s No. 1, or would you prefer to take a No. 2 in a top-10 passing attack?
We’ve assessed more than 350 players’ likely ranges of outcomes, as well as other criteria that help produce thoughtful draft strategies. The result is PFN’s range-of-outcome rankings for QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs, Ks, and D/STs.