Glossary of Products

Chaos Players
Each preseason, a player’s likely range of outcomes falls between his realistic optimal production and realistic minimal production. “Chaos” players are the commonly draftable players whose values are the most difficult to predict. The gap between their realistic optimal production and realistic minimal production is huge.

Some chaos players are highly injury-prone. Others might be backups with a great chance of eventually starting. Their outcomes are objectively unpredictable. Yet, we can still assess whether their market value makes them a higher-probability bargain or a higher-probability bust.

Contrarian Predictions
A player’s market value often is quantified as his overall or positional ADP. Based on PFN’s assessments of each player’s likely range of outcomes, we identify which players are vastly undervalued or overvalued, as well as determine their most likely outcome range. For many years, we’ve shared these predictions with readers, challenging managers to think differently about players whose values might seem obvious but which likely are not accurate.

Range-of-Outcome Rankings
Fantasy rankings generally are two-dimensional solutions to three-dimensional challenges. Each list tells managers which player to draft next – but not why and without context. Are you drafting for high ceiling or for high floor? Would you prefer to take the final No. 1 WR on the board, simply because he’s his team’s No. 1, or would you prefer to take a No. 2 in a top-10 passing attack?

We’ve assessed more than 350 players’ likely ranges of outcomes, as well as other criteria that help produce thoughtful draft strategies. The result is PFN’s range-of-outcome rankings for QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs, Ks, and D/STs.

Glossary of Terms

Here are definitions of the three main sub-products in PFN’s range-of-outcome rankings.

Median (Traditional) Rankings
We assign each player a likely range of ranking outcomes. By averaging the highest and lowest ends of that range, we arrive at a player’s median ranking.

Minimal Rankings
The lowest (worst) likely ranking of each player comprises our minimal rankings. A player with a great floor is ranked higher on the minimal rankings scale than a player with a lower floor, regardless of either player’s ceiling.

Optimal Rankings
The highest (best) likely ranking of each player comprises our optimal rankings. A player with a great ceiling is ranked higher on the optimal rankings scale than a player with a lower ceiling, regardless of either player’s floor.

Ranking Definitions

Here are definitions of terms used in PFN’s range-of-outcome products, specific to each position. You can also find them in the notes by clicking on any of the headers in the spreadsheets.

Quarterback

Starter (S)

Highlights which QB is expected to be named the Week 1 starter.

Possible Starter (PS)

If a team’s Week 1 starting QB remains uncertain, then the most likely candidates are listed as potential starters.

Average Draft Position (ADP)

Each QB’s current ADP.

Start-of-Season Age

The age of the QB on September 8, 2022.

Bargain

A QB whose ADP is 4-7 points worse than PFN’s median ranking is tagged as a bargain.

Big Bargain

A QB whose ADP is 8+ points worse than PFN’s median ranking is tagged as a big bargain.

Fade

A QB whose ADP is 4-7 points better than PFN’s median ranking is tagged as a fade (e.g. overvalued).

Full Fade

A QB whose ADP is 8+ points better than PFN’s median ranking is tagged as a full fade (e.g. very overvalued).

Running Back

Start-of-Season Age

The age of the RB on September 8, 2022.

Bell-Cow Starter (B)

Highlights which RB is expected to be a high-volume workhorse.

Starter (S)

Highlights which RB is expected to be the unquestioned starter beginning in Week 1, regardless of the anticipated size of their workload.

Running Back by Committee (RBBC)

If there is no unquestioned starter on a team, then two or more RBs are listed as part of an RBBC. These RBs are in line to split (roughly evenly) the workload to begin the season.

Glorified Handcuff (GH)

A No. 2 RB on a team’s depth chart is a glorified handcuff if he provides stand-alone fantasy value based on a fairly consistent, moderate workload.

Direct Handcuff (DH)

Any No. 2 RB who is not a glorified handcuff and who would take over as the starter if the No. 1 RB cannot play is a direct handcuff.

Partial Handcuff (PH)

If there is no clear No. 2 RB playing behind a starter, then two or more RB teammates are partial handcuffs. Additionally, even if there is a clear No. 2 RB, if he’s not expected to completely take over as the starter if the No. 1 RB cannot play, then he and at least one teammate are partial handcuffs.

Third-Down Specialist (TDS)

Third-down specialists frequently play on passing downs, usually giving them more value as pass catchers than as rushers. These specialists are unlikely to ever serve as a team’s starter. Their role on the depth chart often remains static, regardless of other RB depth chart shifts throughout the season.

Average Draft Position (ADP)

Each RB’s current ADP.

Bargain

An RB whose ADP is 6-11 points worse than PFN’s median ranking is tagged as a bargain.

Big Bargain

An RB whose ADP is 12+ points worse than PFN’s median ranking is tagged as a big bargain.

Fade

An RB whose ADP is 6-11 points better than PFN’s median ranking is tagged as a fade (e.g. overvalued).

Full Fade

An RB whose ADP is 12+ points better than PFN’s median ranking is tagged as a full fade (e.g. very overvalued).

Wide Receiver

Start-of-Season Age

The age of the WR on September 8, 2022.

Likely #1 (#1)

Highlights which WR is expected to be the team’s No. 1 WR beginning Week 1.

Likely #2 (#2)

Highlights which WR is expected to be the team’s No. 2 WR beginning Week 1.

Likely #3 (#3)

Highlights which WR is expected to be the team’s No. 3 WR beginning Week 1.

Toss-up #1 (T-1)

If a team’s No. 1 WR remains uncertain, then the most likely candidates are listed as potential No. 1s.

Toss-up #2 (T-2)

If a team’s No. 1 WR is clear, but the No. 2 WR is not, then the most likely candidates are listed as potential No. 2s.

Toss-up #3 (T-3)

If a team’s No. 3 WR remains uncertain, then the most likely candidates are listed as potential No. 3s.

Average Draft Position (ADP)

Each WR’s current ADP.

Bargain

A WR whose ADP is 6-11 points worse than PFN’s median ranking is tagged as a bargain.

Big Bargain

A WR whose ADP is 12+ points worse than PFN’s median ranking is tagged as a big bargain.

Fade

A WR whose ADP is 6-11 points better than PFN’s median ranking is tagged as a fade (e.g. overvalued).

Full Fade

A WR whose ADP is 8+ points better than PFN’s median ranking is tagged as a full fade (e.g. very overvalued).

Tight End

Start-of-Season Age

The age of the TE on September 8, 2022.

Likely #1 (#1)

Highlights which TE is expected to be the team’s No. 1 TE beginning Week 1.

Likely #2 (#2)

Highlights which TE is expected to be the team’s No. 2 TE beginning Week 1.

Toss-up #1 (T-1)

If a team’s No. 1 TE remains uncertain, then the most likely candidates are listed as potential No. 1s.

Toss-up #2 (T-2)

If a team’s No. 1 WR is clear, but the No. 2 TE is not, then the most likely candidates are listed as potential No. 2s.

Average Draft Position (ADP)

Each TE’s current ADP.

Bargain

A TE whose ADP is 3-7 points worse than PFN’s median ranking is tagged as a bargain.

Big Bargain

A TE whose ADP is 8+ points worse than PFN’s median ranking is tagged as a big bargain.

Fade

A TE whose ADP is 3-7 points better than PFN’s median ranking is tagged as a fade (e.g. overvalued).

Full Fade

A TE whose ADP is 8+ points better than PFN’s median ranking is tagged as a full fade (e.g. very overvalued).

Kicker

Start-of-Season Age

The age of the K on September 8, 2022.

Average Draft Position (ADP)

Each K's current ADP.

Bargain

A K whose ADP is 4-7 points worse than PFN’s median ranking is tagged as a bargain.

Big Bargain

A K whose ADP is 8+ points worse than PFN’s median ranking is tagged as a big bargain.

Fade

A K whose ADP is 4-7 points better than PFN’s median ranking is tagged as a fade (e.g. overvalued).

Full Fade

A K whose ADP is 8+ points better than PFN’s median ranking is tagged as a full fade (e.g. very overvalued).

Defense/Special Teams

Average Draft Position (ADP)

Each D/ST’s current ADP.

Bargain

A D/ST whose ADP is 4-7 points worse than PFN’s median ranking is tagged as a bargain.

Big Bargain

A D/ST whose ADP is 8+ points worse than PFN’s median ranking is tagged as a big bargain.

Fade

A D/ST whose ADP is 4-7 points better than PFN’s median ranking is tagged as a fade (e.g. overvalued).

Full Fade

A D/ST whose ADP is 8+ points better than PFN’s median ranking is tagged as a full fade (e.g. very overvalued).

Services and Info

Position Rankings

Proprietary Research

QB Variables

RB Variables

WR Variables

TE Variables

K/DEF Variables