Contrarian Predictions

For many years, we’ve identified opportunities to zig when nearly everyone else zags. A couple of well-timed draft picks — and almost as importantly, a couple of well-placed fades — can mean the difference between a losing season and a title.

Our contrarian predictions are not guesses or even the dreaded “guesstimates.” They’re not hot takes. They’re not copied and pasted from other sites. Our predictions are based on old-fashioned, firsthand research. There’s nothing unique or helpful about making a prediction based on a reporter saying, “QB John Doe is showing a lot of chemistry in camp with WR Pete Jones.” Similarly, suggesting a great player will be great again is worthless.

Fantasy victory is found at the edges, where truths are buried beneath stale conventional wisdom. We’re always digging below the surface. Sometimes we come up empty. But more often than not, we find a nugget worth more than a guess, blanket belief, or last year’s stats.

The following contrarian predictions stem from more than 10 years of digging, producing a depth of fantasy-based predictive analytics not found anywhere else. We’ve divided these evenly among positions and among overvalued and undervalued players.

As the offseason progresses, we’ll be very transparent if we have to make adjustments. For example, we believe Lamar Jackson is overvalued. If the market catches up with our thinking by August — if his value drops to a level where we feel comfortable investing in him — then we’ll highlight this shift. Or if the Ravens sign Will Fuller and Julio Jones to cheap contracts in early August, we might become a little more bullish about Jackson and revise our thinking.

Throughout the summer, we’ll be fully transparent with you. In the meantime, given the current NFL landscape, we believe strongly in these predictions.

QB Fantasy Bargain: Jared Goff

Most of the fantasy world is asking how bad Jared Goff will be. We’re more interested in how good he could be. Answer: better than most people think.

QB Fantasy Bust: Lamar Jackson

Yes, Lamar Jackson could be the No. 1 fantasy QB. He could just as easily finish outside the top 10. So play the percentages, not hunches.

RB Fantasy Bargain: Isaiah Spiller

If you’re listening to conventional wisdom and sleeping on Isaiah Spiller, we’re here to wake you up with smelling salts and detailed analyses.

RB Fantasy Bust: Damien Harris

There’s one clear path for Damien Harris to meet fantasy expectations…and a lot of paths that will make him a disappointment.

TE Fantasy Bargain: Hayden Hurst

We realize not every worthy TE is draftable. But relegating Hayden Hurst to the fantasy trash heap is a huge mistake.

TE Fantasy Bust: Travis Kelce

Based on ADP and near-universal expert opinion, Travis Kelce is a no-brainer No. 1 fantasy TE. Here’s the case for fading him in drafts.

WR Fantasy Bargain: Rashod Bateman

Why is most of the fantasy universe sleeping on Rashod Bateman? We don’t know, but we do care. Bateman is vastly undervalued.

WR Fantasy Bust: Davante Adams

We don’t play things safe, and neither should you. When evidence suggests a perennially elite WR won’t be elite, take action.

QB Fantasy Bargain: Jared Goff

Most of the fantasy world is asking how bad Jared Goff will be. We’re more interested in how good he could be. Answer: better than most people think.

QB Fantasy Bust: Lamar Jackson

Yes, Lamar Jackson could be the No. 1 fantasy QB. He could just as easily finish outside the top 10. So play the percentages, not hunches.

RB Fantasy Bargain: Isaiah Spiller

If you’re listening to conventional wisdom and sleeping on Isaiah Spiller, we’re here to wake you up with smelling salts and detailed analyses.

RB Fantasy Bust: Damien Harris

There’s one clear path for Damien Harris to meet fantasy expectations…and a lot of paths that will make him a disappointment.

TE Fantasy Bargain: Hayden Hurst

We realize not every worthy TE is draftable. But relegating Hayden Hurst to the fantasy trash heap is a huge mistake.

TE Fantasy Bust: Travis Kelce

Based on ADP and near-universal expert opinion, Travis Kelce is a no-brainer No. 1 fantasy TE. Here’s the case for fading him in drafts.

WR Fantasy Bargain: Rashod Bateman

Why is most of the fantasy universe sleeping on Rashod Bateman? We don’t know, but we do care. Bateman is vastly undervalued.

WR Fantasy Bust: Davante Adams

We don’t play things safe, and neither should you. When evidence suggests a perennially elite WR won’t be elite, take action.

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